CE:NTURY-SCALE SOLAFl VARIABILITY AND THE INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE RECORD

Variability of the total solar irradiance (TSI) is a potential contributor to changes in global mean temperature on time scales longer than the relaxation time of the upper ocean (i.e. a few years). Indeed, striking correlations between the global instrumental temperature record, extending back a little more than a century, and observable solar features, most notably the solar cycle length, have led many investigators (e.g. FriisChristensen 1991, Reid 1991 ) to postulate that solar variations may control decade-to-century (Dee-Cen) changes in global mean temperature Ts. In the absence of a convincing physical link between the observed solar features and TSI, however, the role of solar variability in the terrestrial climate record is difficult to quantify. In this study, we examine the implications of some simple physical assumptions regarding solar variability for the way it might affect the instrumental record of T%